Analyzing the Influence of Foreign Debt on Non-Oil Economic Growth: A Case Study of Iraq Using the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) Model from 2003 to 2022

Salam Anwar Ahmed; Hareth Adnan Mohammed; Saif Sabah Hammood Algburi

doi:10.51699/ajdes.v37i1.882

Authors

Salam Anwar Ahmed Department of Economic, College of Administration and Economics, Kirkuk University, Kirkuk, Iraq
Hareth Adnan Mohammed Department of Economic, College of Administration and Economics, Kirkuk University, Kirkuk, Iraq
Saif Sabah Hammood Algburi Department of Economic, College of Administration and Economics, Kirkuk University, Kirkuk, Iraq

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.51699/ajdes.v37i1.882

Keywords:

external debt, performance

Abstract

Developing countries' external debt is a strategic tool used by creditor countries to exert pressure on debtor countries, creating a complex dynamic. This article explores the determinants of Iraq's external debt. The methodology used includes unit root tests, long-run and short-run analyzes using autoregressive distributed (ARDL) models, and diagnostic tests to ensure model validity. The results reveal that external debt has a significant negative impact in the long and short term on non-oil economic growth in Iraq. The study suggests wise strategies for managing debt, diversifying sources of financing, and prioritizing political stability and infrastructure development to promote economic growth.

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International Monetary Fund: https://www.imf.org/ar/Home

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